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Chalk it up to destiny, fortune, or a oddity of chance, depending on your preference. If Australia's opening day in Adelaide was a puzzle tossed into the air, the majority of the pieces came to rest the right way up and in the correct place. It's been a recurring theme for the hosts in this contest: monstered by England's attack in Perth, only to orchestrate an even greater collapse; stumbling in Brisbane, rescued by the tail.

For another day, the pattern persisted: whether it was dodgy fielding or dodgy technology, things keep falling into place for the Australians.

The tourists, meanwhile, brought a strategy founded on the belief that they couldn't win in Australia with medium-fast seamers and a wicketkeeper standing close, then lost to be defeated by medium-fast seamers with a keeper in close. England was handed the gift of no Pat Cummins, an absent Josh Hazlewood, Nathan Lyon's unavailability and yet proceeded to suffer two defeats in six days. Their third encounter brought the following boon: Steve Smith being absent with an inner-ear problem, their very own Ghost of Ashes Past replaced in the batting lineup by a aging, struggling opener whom Australia had previously attempted to omit.

In an act of courtesy, England felt compelled to drop him too. In the cordon, on just five, when the score would have been 50 for three. A couple of hours before, Usman Khawaja's career had been as good as over, with the panel unveiling a new option called the Travis Head Dashing Opener™. Soon after, Khawaja had been given two lives, first by Smith's balance issues, then by Harry Brook's spill at slip.

A Liberated Knock from the Middle Order

The demotion the order had merely saved him a brief period at the top, but that ensured he almost entirely dodged Jofra Archer's intense opening burst, a potentially critical missed contest given Khawaja's recent struggles against high-speed bowling. Liberated, with nothing to lose, Khawaja played perhaps his most fluent and composed innings since his last comeback through the middle of the batling order in 2022.

The other seamer was not much slower than Archer, but Khawaja capitalized on his mistakes while exploiting Ben Stokes's bouncer to get his signature pull shot going. He identified Will Jacks's weakness as a day-one spinner and thumped him accordingly. There was a half century after lunch, amid a vital rebuild with Alex Carey after some Christmas giveaways.

Smith may be Australia's best bat in career terms, Carey might be their most in-form one right this moment, after his second century this year.

A Chance Gone, but Influence Secured

This is still a strong possibility of this being Khawaja's final match, with Smith to come back and the rest of the order unlikely to be shifted, so a hundred that could have been both redemption and send-off would have been a remarkable tale. But straining against late-career limitations left it just out of reach. A legendary captain in his last Test was fighting the end, hoping for one final century, out instead attempting a big shot a spinner to the boundary. Khawaja, six months older, was out slog-sweeping a spinner to deep midwicket for 82.

Nevertheless, it was defining for the side, and further proof of how disruption hasn't bothered these Australians. Misplace your best bat minutes before the match? The stand-in has it covered. A weird lineup to follow? It poses no issue either.

Carey's Local Triumph

Carey as wicketkeeper would usually bat at No 7, while the plan at the start of the series was to establish Cameron Green at No 6. The spot opened up by Travis Head's move was at No 5. And yet, instead of filling that gap, Australia brought him in at No 7 and promoted Green and Carey up.

It seems normal about positioning an active wicketkeeper ahead of an specialist batter who keeps wicket, but on this day it worked, maybe because Carey was fresh in the initial batting effort. He secured the hundred that Khawaja missed, scoring in his usual enterprising way, producing a huge Adelaide occasion as hometown crowds filled the standing room areas.

In the end, he guided Australia's score from 85 when he arrived to 321 when he was out, and further runs are possible for the final two wickets on the next day. Smith was absent, five of the leading batters made scores of little substance, but Australia are firmly in control, with far more runs than seemed probable at multiple points.

England's only path to change that is a brute-force response: take two wickets, bat for five sessions in the scorching conditions. Anything else leaves it up to chance, or fortune, or a quirk of probability. Don't trust such things.