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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.