Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.