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At first, Donald Trump appeared to take a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. Following delivering warnings of "severe repercussions" last August if Russia's president persisted obstructing peace discussions, he finally imposed considerable penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action significantly affected Putin's capacity to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European participation, the former president has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in danger. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal actually undermine that essential sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump persists to consider the war as a mere land disagreement, implying giving Putin a section of Ukraine's land will appease the president. But, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a charred swath of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's obvious desire to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although freezing in status the presently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with land that its troops have been unable to capture in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open route to the capital if he subsequently opt to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate renewed fighting more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their present large number personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's proposal imposes no similar constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be condemned and forbidden." As if to underscore this point, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding elections in Russia.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the proposal makes Russia promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent accords in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a ceasefire and a return of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone trust Russia on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. While the initiative warns of a "decisive joint military response" if the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details include vague to alarming. The proposal would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the reassurance force, likely headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened forces, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "significant, intentional, and continuous military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. Yet in contrast to a strong Ukrainian military – the nation's best defense against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, like Trump, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not