Behind this Ceremony of Putin's Delhi Trip: The Indo-Russian Bond That Has Weakened.

The rhetoric and optics from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India projected a strong two-way relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the tarmac with a embrace, and the statesmen shared a ride together, mirroring a known diplomatic style. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian connection as a "beacon", founded on "shared respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth visit to India over his 25-year tenure and his twentieth meeting with Modi since the latter took the premiership in 2014.

A Divide Between Pageantry and Substance

Yet, a significant disconnect persists between the ceremony and the substance of this alliance. While Putin vowed "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, Indian companies are actually buying less Russian oil in the face of international pressure. The two countries concluded numerous agreements covering migration, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. However, expected announcements on major military deals did not materialize. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a situation driven by holdups in deliveries of equipment and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own defence requirements.

A Partnership Losing Geopolitical Weight

These developments indicates that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the identical geopolitical clout it once possessed. In the Cold War, India enjoyed preferential barter arrangements and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its allies. This privileged relationship peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have attempted to maintain a semblance of this close bond through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the truth is that their engagement lacks the same importance as New Delhi has substantially deepened ties with the Western world.

Diversification and Inherent Contradictions

New Delhi is not expected to sever its important relationship with Moscow. Yet, as Western coercion increases on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to diversify the relationship into other sectors. On Putin's visit, they unveiled an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, balanced and sustainable". This includes enhancing entry for Indian goods to rectify a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two spans multiple strategically important fields – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.

Ideological Affinity and Seen Dependability

At an sentimental plane, a significant amount of affinity with Russia persists, particularly among senior generations of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has resulted in a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. Amid recent frictions between India and the US, in which American officials have issued sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.

This challenge, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive joint statement issued during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically referred to the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the conflict have been minimal.

Squaring the Dilemma: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Balancing Act

This situation does not belie the inherent contradictions in India's foreign policy. The nation is set to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, following a comparable pact with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen cultural contacts between India and Russia.

How can India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the removal of a key thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. However, even if a settlement is achieved, if it falls short of a "just peace" that upholds Ukraine's independence and borders, critical examination of the India-Russia relationship will certainly persist in Western governments.