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On occasions when the wind blows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for issues.

That is when enormous inflatables are dispatched across the border, with crates of contraband goods swinging beneath.

Over the recent period, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into suspension 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are convinced they are dealing with something much more aggressive than mere smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been "weaponised" in an manifestation of hybrid warfare by Belarus, an ally of the Kremlin.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has announced an official alert.

While balloons have been used by smugglers in the past, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Of course it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus instrumentalises criminal networks to have an effect on bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, each evening, border units deploy in the frontier area.

The balloons are primarily seen under cover of darkness.

Patrols establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any company that can develop how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also act as a preventive measure.

Political Objectives

The border itself is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a manufactured emergency.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and force us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Economic and Social Impact

Currently, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – sowing discontent – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the fundamental challenges."