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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.