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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."